Insights
Dr. Harry Markowitz, Andy Melnick, and Steve Turi discuss investments.
Russo-Sino Alliance-Post-Post-Cold War — Erodes Globalization-Russian Control of Gas Supplies May Force Germany to Ration — German Economy Suffers Next Winter
Sharp Market Declines — Negative Wealth Effect — Underwrites Fed Policies – Strong Employment Gives Fed the Umbrella for Aggressive Policies — QT Pressures Multiples — Refocus on Earnings Leads to Stock Selectivity – Less Focus on Broad Indices — Negative U.S. and China Workforce Demographics Changes Globalization
Current High Levels of Inflation — Broadening Impact
With its May meeting, the Fed announced more aggressive tactics in its war to.. Read More »
Fed Policy — Dancing Between Raindrops — Fed Tightening and Fiscal Policy Drag Tests 2023 Economic Outlook — Wage Pressures a Secondary Inflation Impact Could Lengthen Higher Inflation — Accelerating World Food Inflation Could Affect Emerging Market Debt Obligations — Fixed Income View Change
Current High Levels of Inflation—effect Broadening
According to the Cleveland Fed, the median Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides a.. Read More »
“Putin Shock” — Financialization of Warfare Threatens “Risk-Free” Status of U.S. Govt. Debt — Can the Fed Thread the Needle Between Soft Landing and Disinflation? – Will Planned Rate Increases Achieve Sufficient Positive Real Rates to Lower Inflation? — Will Eroding Consumers’ Real Incomes Lead to Slower Economic Growth and Shift Away from National Brands? – Will Tight Labor Markets Lead to Higher Productivity? –Displacement and Replacement?
We.. Read More »
“Putin Shock” May Create Shocking Changes – Inflation Becomes Viral? — Quantitative Tightening (QT) Lower Multiples? –Wage Pressures and Tight Labor Markets Lead to Higher Productivity?
COVID Variants Lower Forecast Confidence — Greater Market Volatility
Americans entered 2021 with the hope that the miracle of vaccines.. Read More »
Fed Rate Liftoff and Balance Sheet Runoff (QT) Difficult to Pull off in Parallel — Produces Heightened Policy Risks — QT Could Reduce Market Liquidity — Earnings Growth Then Key to Equity Performance Rather Than Multiples — Negative Real Rates Remain — Result Limited Economic Restraint — Consensus Expects Inflation to Moderate Around Mid-Year — Risk to That Consensus Potential Extended Wage Pressures
Americans entered 2021 with the hope that the miracle of vaccines.. Read More »
COVID Variants Lower Forecast Confidence — Greater Market Volatility
Fed Rate Liftoff and Balance Sheet Runoff (QT) Difficult to Pull off in Parallel — Produces Heightened Policy Risks — QT Could Reduce Market.. Read More »
2022 – the Year Ahead Living With COVID Variants – More Mini-Cycles Transitory or Persistent – How Long Will Inflation Take to Return to Low 2%?
Living With COVID Variants — Both Long-Lasting and More Mini-Cycles
The economic outlook for 2022 and its future path depends, in part,.. Read More »
Inflationary Supply Shocks – Will the Fed’s “Largely Transitory Inflation” View Prove to Be Transitory as Well? COVID Health Risk Gap – White-Collar Health Risks Compared to Blue Collar Workers – Will It Lead to Structural Changes in Job Markets?
This year provided.. Read More »
Fed Tapering — Monetary Policy Still Accommodative — Potential Changes in Fed Membership More Dovish Policies — Financial System Awash in Cash, Fed Drains Cash Using Repos – Delta Variant Likely Peaked, Mini Cyclical Fourth Quarter Rebound — Shipping Delays and Locked Down Asian Factories Negatively Affect Fourth Quarter Sales and Earnings — Pricing Power of Goods Suppliers Will Determine Their Ability to Protect Margins From the COVID Spillover — Shelter Cost Inflation Heavy Weighting in CPI and PCE — Lags Real World Change 6-12 Months – Rent Increases Sticky
In its recent meeting,.. Read More »
The information contained on this website is not intended to be used as the sole basis of investment decisions and is not a recommendation nor a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment. It is intended to be informational and educational. The information provided should be used as a general guide to investment performance. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future results.
Copyright © 2022. All rights reserved.