Insights

skyview investment advisors clients

 Dr. Harry Markowitz, Andy Melnick, and Steve Turi discuss investments.

Inflation Moderation Lags Economic Slowing—Increases Uncertainties for Fed Decisions—M2 Money Stock Growth Rate Declining Rapidly—If Sustained--Economy May Slow Sooner Than Forecasts—Fed Pivoting Sooner?—Treasury Market Depth Below Historic Norms--Third Year of a Presidential Term—a Very Good Year for Stock Market Performance--Presidential Campaign Begins November 9th—Could Bring Pressure on Chair Powell to Pivot

Fed Recognizes Risks to the Economy from its Rapid Rate Increases—Result-Lower Rate Increases at a Measured Pace As broadly noted, monetary.. Read More »

Broad Lowering of Earnings Estimates Likely During Quarterly Reporting Period — Monetary Policy Changes Impact Economic Output Before Prices — Increases Chances for Fed Errors – Post-Covid Era Regionalization Benefits North America – End of Zero Rate Environment – Cash as an Asset — Recognizing Risks, Long-Term Equity Values Likely Created

Chair Powell Continued to Caution Against Prematurely Loosening Policy — Investors Finally Listened

Investors, prior to the recent August.. Read More »

Chair Powell — Read My Lips — “Restrictive Policy for Some Time” — Treasury Actions May Reduce Near-Term QT Concerns — Service Sector Inflation May Prove Sticky Due to Wage Cost Pressures — Shelter Inflation Increases into First Half of 2023 — QT May Reduce Multiple Inflation – Corporate Fundamentals Regain Focus as a Result

Chair Powell—Sensitive to Fed’s Errors in the 70’s – Avoid Prematurely Loosening Fed Policies

Our past Commentaries referred to the.. Read More »

Goods Inflation Likely Moderating — Inflation Focus Shifts to Services and Wage Costs — Economy Slowing-Mild or Deep? — Fed Must Avoid 70’s Stop-and-Go Rate Policy Errors — Equity Market Hopes – Is That a Strategy?

GDP Second Quarter Decline — First Real Signs of Economic Slowing — -First Quarter Quirky Decline Masked Internal Growth

The government’s.. Read More »

Russo-Sino Alliance-Post-Post-Cold War — Erodes Globalization-Russian Control of Gas Supplies May Force Germany to Ration — German Economy Suffers Next Winter

Russo/Sino Alliance — Post-Post-Cold War — Erodes Globalization — Russia’s Control of Gas Supplies to Europe — Germany May Ration —.. Read More »

Sharp Market Declines — Negative Wealth Effect — Underwrites Fed Policies – Strong Employment Gives Fed the Umbrella for Aggressive Policies — QT Pressures Multiples — Refocus on Earnings Leads to Stock Selectivity – Less Focus on Broad Indices — Negative U.S. and China Workforce Demographics Changes Globalization

Current High Levels of Inflation — Broadening Impact

With its May meeting, the Fed announced more aggressive tactics in its war to.. Read More »

Fed Policy — Dancing Between Raindrops — Fed Tightening and Fiscal Policy Drag Tests 2023 Economic Outlook — Wage Pressures a Secondary Inflation Impact Could Lengthen Higher Inflation — Accelerating World Food Inflation Could Affect Emerging Market Debt Obligations — Fixed Income View Change

Current High Levels of Inflation—effect Broadening

According to the Cleveland Fed, the median Consumer Price Index (CPI)  provides a.. Read More »

“Putin Shock” — Financialization of Warfare Threatens “Risk-Free” Status of U.S. Govt. Debt — Can the Fed Thread the Needle Between Soft Landing and Disinflation? – Will Planned Rate Increases Achieve Sufficient Positive Real Rates to Lower Inflation? — Will Eroding Consumers’ Real Incomes Lead to Slower Economic Growth and Shift Away from National Brands? – Will Tight Labor Markets Lead to Higher Productivity? –Displacement and Replacement?

“Putin Shock” Underlines Eurasian Threat to Western World—U.S. Global Military Power and U.S. Dollar Reserve Status Go Hand-In-Glove

We.. Read More »

“Putin Shock” May Create Shocking Changes – Inflation Becomes Viral? — Quantitative Tightening (QT) Lower Multiples? –Wage Pressures and Tight Labor Markets Lead to Higher Productivity?

COVID Variants Lower Forecast Confidence — Greater Market Volatility

Americans entered 2021 with the hope that the miracle of vaccines.. Read More »

Fed Rate Liftoff and Balance Sheet Runoff (QT) Difficult to Pull off in Parallel — Produces Heightened Policy Risks — QT Could Reduce Market Liquidity — Earnings Growth Then Key to Equity Performance Rather Than Multiples — Negative Real Rates Remain — Result Limited Economic Restraint — Consensus Expects Inflation to Moderate Around Mid-Year — Risk to That Consensus Potential Extended Wage Pressures

COVID Variants Lower Forecast Confidence — Greater Market Volatility

Americans entered 2021 with the hope that the miracle of vaccines.. Read More »