Insights
Dr. Harry Markowitz, Andy Melnick, and Steve Turi discuss investments.
FED A HAWKISH HOLD—OCTOBER/NOVEMBER FED MEETING LIKELY ANOTHER HOLD—BUT A CLOSE CALL—FED HIGHER FOR LONGER---RATE CUT UNLIKELY BEFORE SECOND QUARTER— HIGHER RATES, LONGER REFLECT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
OCTOBER/NOVEMBER RATE DECISION WILL LIKELY DEPEND IMPORTANTLY ON THREE CPI AND FOUR PCE PRICE INDEX REPORTS PRECEEDING THAT MEETING—CLOSE CALL.. Read More »
Fed Manages Unprecedented Tightening Cycle—core Inflation Outlook Trending Favorably--declining Wage Increases Will Likely Reflect Pass-through Of Lower Future Inflation—history Shows Relative Stable Equity Markets In Presidential Election Year — July Funds Rate The Peak Rate?—peak Rate Continues Some Time Into 2024
Fed Manages Unprecedented Tightening Cycle—so Far Successfully---reduced Inflation While Unemployment Remained Historcally Low
The Recent.. Read More »
Economic Momentum Perplexes Forecasters—interest Sensitive Sectors Defy Fed’s Rate Increases--consumer Spending Slowed After January—dwindling Excess Consumer Savings Clouds Holiday Spending— Encouraging Inflation Signs—could July Rate Hike Be The Peak?
Economic Momentum Perplexes Forecasters
The Covid Pandemic Caused, In Part, Disruptions And Accelerated Changes That Continue To Puzzle.. Read More »
Post-covid Disruptions Produce Both Greater Economic Uncertainties And New Investment Opportunities—excess Savings Supports Consumer Spending Through The Holiday Season——fed Should Stabilize Inflation By Setting A Range Rather Than A Single Point Inflation Goal—investors Should Expand Ther Focus Into 2024 To Take Advantage Of Narrow Breadth Market Rally
Post-covid Disruptions Produce Greater Economic Uncertainties
The May Jobs Report Surprised Everyone By Substantially Exceeding All.. Read More »
Fed Dancing Between The Raindrops—fighting Inflation While Avoiding Economic Hit—5-5.25% Likely Peak Funds Rate--core Services Inflation Trending Lower—positive Impact On Pce Price Index--shelter Inflation Likely Trending Lower In The Second Half— Positive Impact On Cpi
Fed Dancing Between The Raindrops—fighting Inflation—avoiding Recession— Fed To Keep Funds Rate Steady Until Year-end—strongly Committed.. Read More »
Debt Ceiling--april Tax Collections Fall Short—debt Ceiling X-date Moves Closer—slim Republican Majority—swing District Republicans Likely To Vote For A Higher Debt Ceiling--debate May Increase Equity Market Volatility—seek Out Investment Opportunities That May Result
Debt Ceiling Uncertainties—extraordinary Measures Will End Soon
Uncertainty Continues To Grow Concerning The Outcome Of The Debt Ceiling.. Read More »
Fed “may’ In May—powell No Rate Cuts This Year-- Markets Look For Cuts At Every Fed Meeting— Systematic Cause For Bank Deposit Runs, The Fed Itself-- Reduced Mid-sized Bank Deposits Restrain Credit And Economic Growth--a Shortage Of Growth Favors Growth Equities—focus On Upcoming Banks Quarterly April Earnings Releases—commercial Real Estate Loans Dominate Mid-sized Banks—most Mid- Sized Banks Meet Federal Risk Tests——fed Needs To Catch Up To Systematic Communications Revolution
Fed “may” In May, Rates Peak, Powell No Rate Cuts This Year, Financial Futures Markets Look For Rate Cuts At Every Fed Meeting Post.. Read More »
Fed Fights Itself—restrictive Rates Vs Qe--banks Awash In Deposits—baby Boomers Retiring—removes Key Job Skills And Knowledge—impacts Productivity— Automation Technologies A Substitute— Rapidly Growing Boomer Social Security And Medicare Costs— Funded By Higher Taxes After The Presidential Election
The Fed Fights The Fed—restrictive Fed Proxy Funds Rate While Financial Markets Fight The Fed, At The Same Time, The Fed Fights Itself With.. Read More »
Geopolitical Restructuring December Commentary
The Year Ahead-- Looking Beyond 2023
At this time of the year, traditional year-ahead forecasts emanate from “Wall Street. Our.. Read More »
Inflation Moderation Lags Economic Slowing—Increases Uncertainties for Fed Decisions—M2 Money Stock Growth Rate Declining Rapidly—If Sustained--Economy May Slow Sooner Than Forecasts—Fed Pivoting Sooner?—Treasury Market Depth Below Historic Norms--Third Year of a Presidential Term—a Very Good Year for Stock Market Performance--Presidential Campaign Begins November 9th—Could Bring Pressure on Chair Powell to Pivot
Fed Recognizes Risks to the Economy from its Rapid Rate Increases—Result-Lower Rate Increases at a Measured Pace As broadly noted, monetary.. Read More »
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