Insights
Dr. Harry Markowitz, Andy Melnick, and Steve Turi discuss investments.
Inflation Moderation Lags Economic Slowing—Increases Uncertainties for Fed Decisions—M2 Money Stock Growth Rate Declining Rapidly—If Sustained--Economy May Slow Sooner Than Forecasts—Fed Pivoting Sooner?—Treasury Market Depth Below Historic Norms--Third Year of a Presidential Term—a Very Good Year for Stock Market Performance--Presidential Campaign Begins November 9th—Could Bring Pressure on Chair Powell to Pivot
Fed Recognizes Risks to the Economy from its Rapid Rate Increases—Result-Lower Rate Increases at a Measured Pace As broadly noted, monetary.. Read More »
Broad Lowering of Earnings Estimates Likely During Quarterly Reporting Period — Monetary Policy Changes Impact Economic Output Before Prices — Increases Chances for Fed Errors – Post-Covid Era Regionalization Benefits North America – End of Zero Rate Environment – Cash as an Asset — Recognizing Risks, Long-Term Equity Values Likely Created
Chair Powell Continued to Caution Against Prematurely Loosening Policy — Investors Finally Listened
Investors, prior to the recent August.. Read More »
Chair Powell — Read My Lips — “Restrictive Policy for Some Time” — Treasury Actions May Reduce Near-Term QT Concerns — Service Sector Inflation May Prove Sticky Due to Wage Cost Pressures — Shelter Inflation Increases into First Half of 2023 — QT May Reduce Multiple Inflation – Corporate Fundamentals Regain Focus as a Result
Our past Commentaries referred to the.. Read More »
Goods Inflation Likely Moderating — Inflation Focus Shifts to Services and Wage Costs — Economy Slowing-Mild or Deep? — Fed Must Avoid 70’s Stop-and-Go Rate Policy Errors — Equity Market Hopes – Is That a Strategy?
The government’s.. Read More »
Russo-Sino Alliance-Post-Post-Cold War — Erodes Globalization-Russian Control of Gas Supplies May Force Germany to Ration — German Economy Suffers Next Winter
Sharp Market Declines — Negative Wealth Effect — Underwrites Fed Policies – Strong Employment Gives Fed the Umbrella for Aggressive Policies — QT Pressures Multiples — Refocus on Earnings Leads to Stock Selectivity – Less Focus on Broad Indices — Negative U.S. and China Workforce Demographics Changes Globalization
Current High Levels of Inflation — Broadening Impact
With its May meeting, the Fed announced more aggressive tactics in its war to.. Read More »
Fed Policy — Dancing Between Raindrops — Fed Tightening and Fiscal Policy Drag Tests 2023 Economic Outlook — Wage Pressures a Secondary Inflation Impact Could Lengthen Higher Inflation — Accelerating World Food Inflation Could Affect Emerging Market Debt Obligations — Fixed Income View Change
Current High Levels of Inflation—effect Broadening
According to the Cleveland Fed, the median Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides a.. Read More »
“Putin Shock” — Financialization of Warfare Threatens “Risk-Free” Status of U.S. Govt. Debt — Can the Fed Thread the Needle Between Soft Landing and Disinflation? – Will Planned Rate Increases Achieve Sufficient Positive Real Rates to Lower Inflation? — Will Eroding Consumers’ Real Incomes Lead to Slower Economic Growth and Shift Away from National Brands? – Will Tight Labor Markets Lead to Higher Productivity? –Displacement and Replacement?
We.. Read More »
“Putin Shock” May Create Shocking Changes – Inflation Becomes Viral? — Quantitative Tightening (QT) Lower Multiples? –Wage Pressures and Tight Labor Markets Lead to Higher Productivity?
COVID Variants Lower Forecast Confidence — Greater Market Volatility
Americans entered 2021 with the hope that the miracle of vaccines.. Read More »
Fed Rate Liftoff and Balance Sheet Runoff (QT) Difficult to Pull off in Parallel — Produces Heightened Policy Risks — QT Could Reduce Market Liquidity — Earnings Growth Then Key to Equity Performance Rather Than Multiples — Negative Real Rates Remain — Result Limited Economic Restraint — Consensus Expects Inflation to Moderate Around Mid-Year — Risk to That Consensus Potential Extended Wage Pressures
Americans entered 2021 with the hope that the miracle of vaccines.. Read More »
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