Archives

Will the Mid-Term Election Results Cause Trump to Change His Trade Policies? Watch the G20 Meeting in Buenos Aires for Signs of a Positive Change

Sino-American Trade War — Will the G20 Bi-Lateral Meeting Change Its Course? Pressures on the global economy and financial markets continue to... Read More »

The Fed Put May Be Kaput

The So-Called Fed Put Since The Great Recession, investors looked to support from the Federal Open Market Committee (F.O.M.C.) during periods of... Read More »

Key Outcome of Mid-Term Elections — Behind Us

It is Over! For investors, the most important outcome of the mid-term elections — they are over. Why? According to a recent academic study,... Read More »

3rd Quarter GDP Observations

Third Quarter Real GDP Report—Slightly Better Than Expectations Third quarter real GDP (advance estimate) increased 3.5% compared to the prior... Read More »

Will the Trade War Between the U.S. and China Grow Into Cold War II? What That Might Mean For Investors?

This commentary will briefly outline aggressive trade and military actions taken by the United States that will likely make resolving trade issues... Read More »

Technology Capital Expenditures in the Updates – Economic Momentum – How Long? – Mid-Term Elections – Can It Moderate the Trade Wars – Emerging Markets – Can the Calm Continue?

The Fed Funds Rate – Where to? The F.O.M.C. increased the Fed funds rate this week from 1.75-2.0% to 2.0-2.25%. In announcing this change, the... Read More »

Possible Trump Impeachment Produces Different Impact than the Clinton Impeachment – Why the Difference? Why Important?

Trump vs Clinton Impeachment Whether Democrats gain control of the House in the mid-term elections will likely determine whether impeachment... Read More »

It’s the Politics, Stupid! Trade Negotiations

It’s the Economy, Stupid

To keep Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign on message, Clinton’s lead strategist, coined the phrase “the... Read More »

Populists Meet The Cocoon Class - Possible Economic And Investment Implications

Populism The word populism rings loud in many countries today. The overall subject obviously lends itself to a lengthy Ph.D. thesis not this... Read More »

Trade War–the Macro–the Micro– and More than Tariffs – or How German Auto Tariffs Might Be Used As a National Security Negotiating Position

Trade War – the Tariffs It took some time for investors to finally shake off their complacency and show their discomfort with the reality of... Read More »

Overusing Debt is Like Overusing Antibiotics - it Reduces Its Effectiveness

Most observers expect economic growth to benefit from the new fiscal stimulus programs through at least the next 18 months. With that in mind,... Read More »

Markets and Midterm Elections - A Recent Study Gives Some Answers

Besides dealing with the title of this commentary, we also will look at several issues that concern investors.

Economic and Business... Read More »

Is the Fed Put Kaput?

The Fed Put and A ccommodative Monetary Policy Tools For a number of years, equity investors assumed that the Fed would pull back short-term... Read More »

The Markets - Pick Your Poison Tariffs or Tech

First Poison—Tariffs as a Tool The headlines and much commentary on higher tariffs threatened against China, in our view, glosses over the... Read More »

China Trade and Potential Market Reactions to Congressional Testimony March 21 And 22nd – What is Section 301?

Background — China Trade U.S. imports of Chinese goods totaled about $500-600 billion last year or less than 20% of total Chinese exports. After... Read More »

Quick Comment On this Morning's Jobs Report

The Jobs Report — Wow! The government reported a blowout jobs report this morning, which the financial markets should find supportive. The U.S.... Read More »

Higher Tariffs and Higher Budget Deficits Do Not Mix

Is Canada a National Security Risk? Investors reacted negatively to next week’s likely announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum. The... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: Market Decline — Congressional Budget Buster—Guns And Butter—Great Political Mix — Not so Hot An Investment Mix

Congressional Guns and Butter Today’s market decline, in our view, reflects concerns over the discretionary spending cap increases of nearly... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: Inflation Marker Wednesday

Inflation Expectations The majority of investors cite the surprising increase in average hourly earnings as the tipping point in their concern... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: Today's Market – a Few Comments

Reaction to Market Meltup – Higher Interest Rates The sharp drop in the market today reflects, in our view, the normal market reaction likely... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: Inflation — Underlying Inflation Gauge — Upside Risk Signaled

Upside Inflation Risk Signaled Yesterday’s (1/31/18) Federal Open Market Committee (F.O.M.C.) statement expressed a more confident expectation... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: Now is Not the Time to be Complacent – 3 Challenges to Navigate Rising Interest Rates

Over the past three decades, the declining interest rate environment rewarded bond investors. That environment no longer exists. Today, investors... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: Fourth Quarter GDP Stronger Than Headline Number

Reduced Inventories and Negative Net Exports Pulled Down Fourth Quarter G.D.P. Growth Compared to Consensus The government’s fourth quarter... Read More »

Déjà Vu Again – Hard Commodities Follow Technology Expansion

Technology Capital Expenditures in the Chips A recent article in the Wall Street Journal showed that the tech giant Samsung spent more on capital... Read More »

Life after Tax Reform— Olympic Level Tax Gaming — the Second Half – A Changing Dynamic for the Economy and Markets

Tax Reform—“Good or Not So Good?” Real life experience for individuals and corporations will determine the eventual answer to that... Read More »

2018 Commentary --- Part 4 of 4 – Investment Summary and Conclusions

The Economy Shows Little Excesses--Economic Growth Should Continue in 2018 Little economic excesses exist that would suggest a slowdown in 2018.... Read More »

2018 Commentary --- Part 3 of 4 – The Fed - Change and Change

Fed Funds Rate Where To? Over the last 12 months, the Fed made two important policy reversals. Last December, it raised the Fed funds rate for... Read More »

2018 Commentary --- Part 2 of 4 – Tax Reform – Reform Not Simply Tax Cuts

Tax Reform—Will It Pass? The chances tax reform clears Congress remains somewhat uncertain as of this writing. The odds increased significantly... Read More »

2018 Commentary --- Part 1 of 4 – It Was A Very Good Year – And Now?

We divided our 2018 outlook into four self-standing commentaries. This first commentary focuses on the overall economy. The second examines the... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: 2018 Commentary --- In Four Parts Part 4

The Economy Shows Little Excesses—Economic Growth Should Continue in 2018 Little economic excesses exist that would suggest a slowdown in 2018.... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: 2018 Commentary --- In Four Parts Part 3

Fed Funds Rate Where To? Over the last 12 months, the Fed made two important policy reversals. Last December, it raised the Fed funds rate for the... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: 2018 Commentary --- In Four Parts Part 2

Tax Reform—Will It Pass? The chances tax reform clears Congress remains somewhat uncertain as of this writing. The odds increased significantly... Read More »

SkyView Investment Advisors: 2018 Commentary --- In Four Parts Part 1

We divided our 2018 outlook into four self-standing commentaries. This first commentary focuses on the overall economy. The second examines the... Read More »

Investor Optimism – Despite "The Merry Minuet" Environment

The optimism of consumers, business owners, and investors continues at high levels despite hurricanes in Florida, Texas, and Puerto Rico, fires in... Read More »

The Fed’s Ex-Lax Rate Strategy

More Hawkish Fed—Surprises Some

Our past commentaries suggested that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would move with greater... Read More »

Highlights of the Tax Reform Framework with Brief Comments

The following briefly outlines the proposed tax reforms. To do it quickly, I pasted the outline from the Congressional web page and added my... Read More »

The Fed on Q.T.

The Federal Open Market Committee (F.O.M.C.) meets this week (Sept. 19 – 20) and will likely signal it will begin to shrink the size of the... Read More »

Kicking the Tax Legislation Can up the Congressional Road - the President's Surprise Deal - back to the Trump Bump?

Clearing the Path for Congressional Consideration of Tax Legislation President Trump’s unexpected deal with Democratic leaders postpones the... Read More »

Retail First Sign of the Holiday Season Activity A Positive Indicator

Container Port Volumes Give a Positive Sign for the Holiday Shopping Season

The first signs as to how this year’s important holiday... Read More »

Sears And Amazon Clash of Titans

Sears and Amazon – Bricks and Mortar Came Later

In 1894, Richard Sears issued Sears’ first catalog—later known as “The Big... Read More »

The “What Me Worry” Financial Markets – Nuked?

Measuring the “What Me Worry” Markets Many baby boomers will recall mad magazine and its iconic cover boy—Alfred E. Neumann. His... Read More »

Washington Reality Impacts Investment Focus

Political Warfare and U.S. Economic Growth

For many developing countries, investors will haircut their market capitalizations to reflect... Read More »

The Implications for Tax Reform from the Death of Obamacare Reform

Republicans Give Little Confidence for Enacting Major Legislation

The failure of the senate to pass legislation to reform Obamacare may... Read More »

Second Quarter GDP Outlook — Declining Expectations

The bureau of economic analysis will release the advance estimate of second quarter GDP on July 28. What do the expectations for the quarter... Read More »

Investment Views of Two Veteran Market and Economic Observers

Recently I attended a lunch with several of my colleagues that formerly worked in the Merrill Lynch global research department that I headed.... Read More »

Bloomberg Magazine Interview with Andy Melnick, Larry Chiarello and Steven Turi

As the Fed tapers its asset purchases, correlations among shares may ratchet down from historic highs and provide opportunities for active... Read More »

The Fed – Strong Employment Driving The Move – Inflation Not Their Worry – What Is Their Real Worry?

The Fed – What Next?

Most observers expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the Fed Funds rate another 25 bps at its... Read More »

The Humble Beginning Part-1

The Father of Modern Portfolio Theory and the Insight of Behavioral Finance. A Special Interview with Dr. Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in... Read More »

The Revolution of Behavioral Finance Part-2

The Father of Modern Portfolio Theory and the Insight of Behavioral Finance. A Special Interview with Dr. Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in... Read More »

Congress And The Trump Bump

Positive economic expectations for proposed tax and infrastructure legislation took a decided reversal last week. The reversal resulted from... Read More »

Economic Tone Better Than The First Quarter GDP Headline Number Suggests

The “Advance” estimate for first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) showed an annual growth rate of 0.7%.  More importantly, real... Read More »

First Quarter GDP Expectations - Will It Be The Usual?

As of this date, estimates for first quarter gdp growth range from o.5% by the atlanta fed to 2.1% for the new york fed.   Economists I follow... Read More »

Hope Is Not A Strategy – But There Is Hope

Can They Ever Compromise? Before leaving for Key West about a fortnight ago, house republican leaders were scrambling to pull in the necessary... Read More »

The Change

The first quarter ended with investors returning to reality. since the election much enthusiasm existed that the administration and congress could... Read More »

The End Of One Stop Shopping – The Handover

Since the end of the great recession, investors focused importantly on one key driver to the economy and financial markets—monetary policy.... Read More »

Economy and Markets - Outlook for 2017

The Economy and Markets – Where We Are These comments cover varied topics including proposed personal tax reform; the economic impact of fiscal... Read More »

The Times They Are A Changing

It would be difficult to describe 2016 as anything but unpredictable. For all of the year’s ups and downs, investors head into 2017 with more... Read More »

The Dismal Employment Report

The Job Report Economists projected that September would show a gain of about 200,000 payroll jobs. Instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics... Read More »

China And The Global Market Meltdown

The Morning After – The Market Hangover These comments are being written the morning after the Dow Jones index declined over 500 points or a... Read More »

Trump, Fiscal Policy, And the Yield Curve

Trump Fiscal Policy President Trump, working with a Republican House and Senate, should see fairly rapid progress for two major areas of his... Read More »

What About Long-Term Interest Rates?

The President’s Council of Economic Advisers (C.E.A.) recently published a study, “Long-Term Interest Rates: A Survey,” which examined the... Read More »